QSO 320 Milestone Four Business Scenario
Assignment ID Number AFFGEHU83939HD Type of Document Essay Writing Format APA/MLA/Harvard Academic Level Masters/University References/Sources 4 References
QSO 320 Milestone Four Business Scenario
QSO 320 Milestone Four Business Scenario
As a business analyst, you have been asked by management to examine the data collected and analyzed in the previous modules. The objective is for you to help management decide on the right mix of wine bottles to sell based on newly derived profit information while considering the limitations of the particular types of grapes available for production.
While doing more research on wine production, you realize that it would take an average of 2.5 pounds of grapes to make a bottle of wine. In addition, the marketing department has advised you that the price per bottle that consumers are willing to pay based on comparable brands and types of wine in the market is as follows:
Price for Red Wine ($) Price for White Wine ($) Price for Organic Wine ($) 20.00 20.00 30.00
After discussing wine production with the operations manager, you also learn that the wineries that supply the grapes to produce the above types of wine can produce up to a total of 100,000 pounds of grapes for a six-month supply of wine bottles for the Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco market, with the following expected distribution based on types of grapes:
Red wine ceiling 16,000 bottles White wine ceiling 16,000 bottles Organic wine ceiling 6,000 bottles
Note that the production cost per bottle remains the same as before, that is, 12% of sales or revenue for red wine, 17% of sales for white wine, and 21% for organic wine. With additional information you have gathered, you are now ready to answer the questions posed in the Module Four milestone.
Also note that as a business analyst, you are to examine a finite set of decision alternatives or possible decisions whose outcomes correspond to the possible future events known as states of future. While you can choose which alternative to recommend to management, you have no control over which state of nature will actually occur (Lawrence & Pasternack, 2002).
Remember that at each outcome node of a decision tree, you would calculate the expected payoff, using the probabilities of all possible outcomes at that node and the payoffs associated with those outcomes (Balakrishnan, Render & Stair, 2013). Likewise, at each decision node, you would select the alternative that provides the largest value (expected payoff), which is the profit for this business scenario.
To help management decide on which city (Los Angeles, San Diego, or San Francisco) to focus its marketing efforts, you will need to create a decision tree or table for each of the above cities with your estimation of the probabilities of each decision tree branch based on projected high, moderate, and low demand for the current wine production plan. Calculate the expected payoff for each outcome to quantify your assumptions and recommendations to management.
Balakrishnan, N., Render, B., & Stair, R. (2013). Managerial decision modeling with spreadsheets (3rd ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
Lawrence, J., & Pasternack, B. (2002). Applied management science: Modeling, spreadsheet analysis, and communication for decision making (2nd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
QUALITY OF RESPONSE NO RESPONSE POOR / UNSATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY GOOD EXCELLENT Content (worth a maximum of 50% of the total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 20 points out of 50: The essay illustrates poor understanding of the relevant material by failing to address or incorrectly addressing the relevant content; failing to identify or inaccurately explaining/defining key concepts/ideas; ignoring or incorrectly explaining key points/claims and the reasoning behind them; and/or incorrectly or inappropriately using terminology; and elements of the response are lacking. 30 points out of 50: The essay illustrates a rudimentary understanding of the relevant material by mentioning but not full explaining the relevant content; identifying some of the key concepts/ideas though failing to fully or accurately explain many of them; using terminology, though sometimes inaccurately or inappropriately; and/or incorporating some key claims/points but failing to explain the reasoning behind them or doing so inaccurately. Elements of the required response may also be lacking. 40 points out of 50: The essay illustrates solid understanding of the relevant material by correctly addressing most of the relevant content; identifying and explaining most of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology; explaining the reasoning behind most of the key points/claims; and/or where necessary or useful, substantiating some points with accurate examples. The answer is complete. 50 points: The essay illustrates exemplary understanding of the relevant material by thoroughly and correctly addressing the relevant content; identifying and explaining all of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology explaining the reasoning behind key points/claims and substantiating, as necessary/useful, points with several accurate and illuminating examples. No aspects of the required answer are missing. Use of Sources (worth a maximum of 20% of the total points). Zero points: Student failed to include citations and/or references. Or the student failed to submit a final paper. 5 out 20 points: Sources are seldom cited to support statements and/or format of citations are not recognizable as APA 6th Edition format. There are major errors in the formation of the references and citations. And/or there is a major reliance on highly questionable. The Student fails to provide an adequate synthesis of research collected for the paper. 10 out 20 points: References to scholarly sources are occasionally given; many statements seem unsubstantiated. Frequent errors in APA 6th Edition format, leaving the reader confused about the source of the information. There are significant errors of the formation in the references and citations. And/or there is a significant use of highly questionable sources. 15 out 20 points: Credible Scholarly sources are used effectively support claims and are, for the most part, clear and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition is used with only a few minor errors. There are minor errors in reference and/or citations. And/or there is some use of questionable sources. 20 points: Credible scholarly sources are used to give compelling evidence to support claims and are clearly and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition format is used accurately and consistently. The student uses above the maximum required references in the development of the assignment. 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The paper has slight errors within the paper. This can include small errors or omissions with the cover page, abstract, page number, and headers. There could be also slight formatting issues with the document spacing or the font Additionally the paper might slightly exceed or undershoot the specific number of required written pages for the assignment. 10 points: Student provides a high-caliber, formatted paper. This includes an APA 6th edition cover page, abstract, page number, headers and is double spaced in 12’ Times Roman Font. Additionally, the paper conforms to the specific number of required written pages and neither goes over or under the specified length of the paper.
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