AD 605 Operations Management Essay Assignment
Assignment ID Number AFFGEHU83939HD Type of Document Essay Writing Format APA/MLA/Harvard Academic Level Masters/University References/Sources 4 References
Show as many details of your calculations as possible.
1. This table showing actual sales for the past 5 quarters and the forecast that was made for the 4th Quarter of 2016.
a. Using the four quarters of 2017 for the analysis, calculate the MAD assuming that an exponential smoothing model (?=0.8) was used to forecast sales.
b. Using an exponential smoothing model (?=0.8), calculate the sales forecast for 2018 Quarter 1.
c. Predict the range of uncertainty for the forecast of 2018 Quarter 1 sales, accurate with 95% confidence.
d. Calculate the coefficient of variation (CV) for the 2018 Quarter 1 forecast.
2016 Quarter 4 300 400
2017 Quarter 1 270
2017 Quarter 2 230
2017 Quarter 3 340
2017 Quarter 4 376
2. At a college counselling office, an inventory of hats from each of 50 top universities is maintained so that new customers can choose a hat based on the University they
seek to enter. BU hats cost the company $8.50 each. Last year, demand for BU hats was 300 per month, evenly spaced throughout the year. This demand is expected to
continue in the future. The shipping and other ordering costs for the hats is $75 per order. The holding cost rate is estimated to be 25% annually.
a. If the company used a fixed order quantity model, calculate the optimal economic order quantity (EOQ). b. About how often will orders be placed (in weeks)?
c. How many orders will be placed per year?
d. If management decided to order the hats on a weekly basis (one order per week), how much more would it cost the company per year (using just ordering and holding
e. If the hat supplier offered a discount for ordering 1500 or more hats (at a cost of $8.25 per hat), how many hats should be ordered based on a fixed order quantity
3. Consider a yoga studio that sells yoga mats. Each yoga mat costs the studio $10.25 if it purchases less than 50 in a single order. If the studio purchases at least 50 but
less than 100, the cost is $10.00 per mat. If the studio purchases at least 100 but less than 400, the cost is $9.75 per mat. Finally, if the studio purchases at least 400 mats,
the cost is $9.25 per mat. Demand for each mat is estimated to be 540 annually, evenly spaced throughout the year. The ordering costs is $50 per order. The holding cost
rate is estimated to be 40% annually.
a. If the company used a fixed order quantity model, calculate the optimal economic order quantity.
b. If management decided to order yoga mats once a week, how much more would it cost the company?
4. Consider a motor vehicle department, where an average of 30 customers arrive per hour. Arrivals follow a Poisson process. Each customer requires one service: (a)
drivers license renewal, (b) car registration, or (c) new drivers license. Historically, 30% of customers will come for a drivers license renewal, 45% will come for car
registration, and 25% will come for a new drivers license. Service times are exponentially distributed, averaging 17.5 minutes for a drivers license renewal, 12.5 minutes
for car registration, and 6 minutes for a new drivers license. The M/M/s model (Excel template) will be used as the basis of all analyses. Do not turn in the entire
spreadsheet just list the values of ?, ?, and s, and the output you used to solve the problem.
a. To analyze the drivers license renewal queue (using hours as the time unit), the arrival rate (?) should be what number?
b. To analyze the drivers license renewal queue (using hours as the time unit), the service rate (?) should be what number?
c. Find the server utilization, the average time a customer will wait in queue, and the probability that the queue size will exceed 10 customers, if three servers are used for
drivers license renewal.
d. With one more server, what will be the server utilization, the average time a customer will wait in queue, and the probability that the queue size will exceed 10 customers?
QUALITY OF RESPONSE NO RESPONSE POOR / UNSATISFACTORY SATISFACTORY GOOD EXCELLENT Content (worth a maximum of 50% of the total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 20 points out of 50: The essay illustrates poor understanding of the relevant material by failing to address or incorrectly addressing the relevant content; failing to identify or inaccurately explaining/defining key concepts/ideas; ignoring or incorrectly explaining key points/claims and the reasoning behind them; and/or incorrectly or inappropriately using terminology; and elements of the response are lacking. 30 points out of 50: The essay illustrates a rudimentary understanding of the relevant material by mentioning but not full explaining the relevant content; identifying some of the key concepts/ideas though failing to fully or accurately explain many of them; using terminology, though sometimes inaccurately or inappropriately; and/or incorporating some key claims/points but failing to explain the reasoning behind them or doing so inaccurately. Elements of the required response may also be lacking. 40 points out of 50: The essay illustrates solid understanding of the relevant material by correctly addressing most of the relevant content; identifying and explaining most of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology; explaining the reasoning behind most of the key points/claims; and/or where necessary or useful, substantiating some points with accurate examples. The answer is complete. 50 points: The essay illustrates exemplary understanding of the relevant material by thoroughly and correctly addressing the relevant content; identifying and explaining all of the key concepts/ideas; using correct terminology explaining the reasoning behind key points/claims and substantiating, as necessary/useful, points with several accurate and illuminating examples. No aspects of the required answer are missing. Use of Sources (worth a maximum of 20% of the total points). Zero points: Student failed to include citations and/or references. Or the student failed to submit a final paper. 5 out 20 points: Sources are seldom cited to support statements and/or format of citations are not recognizable as APA 6th Edition format. There are major errors in the formation of the references and citations. And/or there is a major reliance on highly questionable. The Student fails to provide an adequate synthesis of research collected for the paper. 10 out 20 points: References to scholarly sources are occasionally given; many statements seem unsubstantiated. Frequent errors in APA 6th Edition format, leaving the reader confused about the source of the information. There are significant errors of the formation in the references and citations. And/or there is a significant use of highly questionable sources. 15 out 20 points: Credible Scholarly sources are used effectively support claims and are, for the most part, clear and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition is used with only a few minor errors. There are minor errors in reference and/or citations. And/or there is some use of questionable sources. 20 points: Credible scholarly sources are used to give compelling evidence to support claims and are clearly and fairly represented. APA 6th Edition format is used accurately and consistently. The student uses above the maximum required references in the development of the assignment. Grammar (worth maximum of 20% of total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 5 points out of 20: The paper does not communicate ideas/points clearly due to inappropriate use of terminology and vague language; thoughts and sentences are disjointed or incomprehensible; organization lacking; and/or numerous grammatical, spelling/punctuation errors 10 points out 20: The paper is often unclear and difficult to follow due to some inappropriate terminology and/or vague language; ideas may be fragmented, wandering and/or repetitive; poor organization; and/or some grammatical, spelling, punctuation errors 15 points out of 20: The paper is mostly clear as a result of appropriate use of terminology and minimal vagueness; no tangents and no repetition; fairly good organization; almost perfect grammar, spelling, punctuation, and word usage. 20 points: The paper is clear, concise, and a pleasure to read as a result of appropriate and precise use of terminology; total coherence of thoughts and presentation and logical organization; and the essay is error free. Structure of the Paper (worth 10% of total points) Zero points: Student failed to submit the final paper. 3 points out of 10: Student needs to develop better formatting skills. The paper omits significant structural elements required for and APA 6th edition paper. Formatting of the paper has major flaws. The paper does not conform to APA 6th edition requirements whatsoever. 5 points out of 10: Appearance of final paper demonstrates the student’s limited ability to format the paper. There are significant errors in formatting and/or the total omission of major components of an APA 6th edition paper. They can include the omission of the cover page, abstract, and page numbers. Additionally the page has major formatting issues with spacing or paragraph formation. Font size might not conform to size requirements. The student also significantly writes too large or too short of and paper 7 points out of 10: Research paper presents an above-average use of formatting skills. The paper has slight errors within the paper. This can include small errors or omissions with the cover page, abstract, page number, and headers. There could be also slight formatting issues with the document spacing or the font Additionally the paper might slightly exceed or undershoot the specific number of required written pages for the assignment. 10 points: Student provides a high-caliber, formatted paper. This includes an APA 6th edition cover page, abstract, page number, headers and is double spaced in 12’ Times Roman Font. Additionally, the paper conforms to the specific number of required written pages and neither goes over or under the specified length of the paper.
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